Abstract: This data shows the extent of land that might be flooded by the sea (coastal flooding) during a theoretical or ‘design’ flood event with an estimated probability of occurrence, rather than information for actual floods that have occurred in the past. This represents the worst case scenario as any flood defences potentially protecting the coastal floodplain are not taken into account.
Flood event probabilities are referred to in terms of a percentage Annual Exceedance Probability, or ‘AEP’. This represents the probability of an event of this, or greater, severity occurring in any given year. These probabilities may also be expressed as the chance or odds (e.g. 200 to 1) of the event occurring in any given year. They are also commonly referred to in terms of a return period (e.g. the 200-year flood), although this period is not the length of time that will elapse between two such events occurring, as, although unlikely, two very severe events may occur within a short space of time. The following sets out the range of flood event probabilities for which coastal flood extent maps were developed, expressed in terms of Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), and identifies their parallels under other forms of expression.
50% AEP can also be expressed as the 2 Year Return Period and as the 2:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
20% AEP can also be expressed as the 5 Year Return Period and as the 5:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
10% AEP can also be expressed as the 10 Year Return Period and as the 10:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
5% AEP can also be expressed as the 20 Year Return Period and as the 20:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
2% AEP can also be expressed as the 50 Year Return Period and as the 50:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
1% AEP can also be expressed as the 100 Year Return Period and as the 100:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
0.5% AEP can also be expressed as the 200 Year Return Period and as the 200:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
0.1% AEP can also be expressed as the 1000 Year Return Period and as the 1000:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
The Present Day Scenario is also referred to as the Current Scenario. Present Day Scenario data was generated using methodologies based on historic flood data, without taking account of potential changes due to climate change. The potential effects of climate change have been separately modelled and reported on.
Flooding from other sources may occur and areas that are not shown as being within a flood extent may therefore be at risk of flooding from other sources. The flood extent and depth maps are suitable for the assessment of flood risk at a strategic scale only, and should not be used to assess the flood hazard and risk associated with individual properties or point locations, or to replace a detailed flood risk assessment.
Purpose: The data has been developed to inform a national assessment of flood risk that in turn will inform a review of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment required to comply with the requirements of the European Communities (Assessment and Management of Flood Risks) Regulations 2010 to 2015 (the “Regulations”) (implementing Directive 2007/60/EC) for the purposes of establishing a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks, aiming at the reduction of adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods.
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